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Liquidity Black Holes

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Author Info
Stephen Morris (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Hyun Song Shin (London School of Economics)

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Abstract

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon traders, selling of the risky asset by any trader increases the incentives for others to sell. Sales become mutually reinforcing among the short term traders, and payoffs analogous to a bank run are generated. A "liquidity black hole" is the analogue of the run outcome in a bank run model. Short horizon traders sell because others sell. Using global game techniques, this paper solves for the unique trigger point at which the liquidity black hole comes into existence. Empirical implications include the sharp V-shaped pattern in prices around the time of the liquidity black hole.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1434.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Finance (2004), 8(1): 1-18
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1434

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Related research
Keywords: Liquidity; Asset pricing; Global games;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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  5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bengt Holmström, 2001. "LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1837-1867, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2001. "Foreshadowing LTCM: The Crisis of 1763," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-46, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Randolph Luca Bruno, 2006. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Rule of Law," LEM Papers Series 2006/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Veronica Guerrieri & Péter Kondor, 2009. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bruno, Randolph Luca, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," IZA Discussion Papers 3497, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianni De Nicolò & Iryna Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Liquidity and the Allocation of Credit: Business Cycle, Government Debt and Financial Arrangements," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 65, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Hellwig, . "Policy in a Global Coordination Game: Multiplicity vs. Robust Predictions (November 2006, with Marios Angeletos and Alessandro Pavan)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 401, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. R. L. Bruno, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," Working Papers 634, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  8. Acharya, Viral V & Viswanathan, S, 2008. "Moral Hazard, Collateral and Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2004. "Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1468R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  10. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 14612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Olli Castrén, 2006. "Do Financial Market Variables Show Indicator Properties Relative to Exchange Rate Returns?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 165-180, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lasse H. Pedersen & Markus Brunnermeier, 2004. "Predatory Trading," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 425, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Why is there so little regional financial integration in Asia?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 38-61 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  14. Tijmen R. Daniels & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "Defending against Speculative Attacks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-090/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Wagner, Wolf, 2006. "Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises," Discussion Paper 71, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  16. George-Marios Angeletos & Ivan Werning, 2004. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2007. "Common Patterns in Commonality in Returns, Liquidity, and Turnover around the World," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Tambakis, D.N., 2008. "Feedback Trading and Intermittent Market Turbulence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0847, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Gianni De Nicoló & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2009. "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 09/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jose M P Jorge, 2007. "Financial System Architecture: The Role of Systemic Risk, Added Value and Liquidity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 155, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  21. Acharya, Viral V & Shin, Hyun Song & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Fire Sales, Foreign Entry and Bank Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Francisco Peñaranda & Jón Daníelsson, 2007. "On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability," Economics Working Papers 1003, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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