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Liquidity Black Holes

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  • Hyun Song Shin
  • Stephen Morris

Abstract

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon traders, selling of the risky asset by any trader increases the incentives for others to sell. Sales becomes strategic complements between the short term traders, and payoffs analogous to a bank run are generated. A "liquidity black hole" is the analogue of the run outcome in a bank run model. Short horizon traders sell because others sell. Using global game techniques, this paper solves for the unique trigger point at which the liquidity black hole comes into existence. Empirical implications include the sharp V-shaped pattern in prices around the time of the liquidity black hole

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 644.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:644

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Keywords: liquidity; global games;

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References

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  1. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Benjamin Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Positive feedback trading under stress: evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 148-180 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and Crashes," FMG Discussion Papers dp401, Financial Markets Group.
  16. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  17. Max Bruche, 2002. "A structural model of corporate bond pricing with co-ordination failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24930, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  18. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine.
  19. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "LAPM: A Liquidity Based Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 98-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  20. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  21. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
  22. Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2001. "Foreshadowing LTCM: The Crisis of 1763," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-46, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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