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Liquidity Black Holes

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Author Info
Hyun Song Shin
Stephen Morris

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Abstract

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon traders, selling of the risky asset by any trader increases the incentives for others to sell. Sales becomes strategic complements between the short term traders, and payoffs analogous to a bank run are generated. A "liquidity black hole" is the analogue of the run outcome in a bank run model. Short horizon traders sell because others sell. Using global game techniques, this paper solves for the unique trigger point at which the liquidity black hole comes into existence. Empirical implications include the sharp V-shaped pattern in prices around the time of the liquidity black hole

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 644.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:644

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Related research
Keywords: liquidity global games

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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  5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bengt Holmström, 2001. "LAPM: A Liquidity-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1837-1867, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Schnabel, Isabel & Shin, Hyun Song, 2001. "Foreshadowing LTCM: The Crisis of 1763," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-46, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hanno Lustig, 2001. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," Finance 0111004, EconWPA, revised 16 Nov 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Pástor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "LAPM: A Liquidity Based Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 98-8, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Financial Market Runs," NBER Working Papers 9251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruno, Randolph Luca, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," IZA Discussion Papers 3497, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Wagner, Wolf, 2006. "Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises," Discussion Paper 71, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jose M P Jorge, 2007. "Financial System Architecture: The Role of Systemic Risk, Added Value and Liquidity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 155, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Filippo Taddei, 2007. "Liquidity and the Allocation of Credit: Business Cycle, Government Debt and Financial Arrangements," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 65, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  5. George-Marios Angeletos & Ivan Werning, 2004. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Acharya, Viral V & Shin, Hyun Song & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Fire Sales, Foreign Entry and Bank Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Francisco Peñaranda & Jón Daníelsson, 2007. "On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability," Economics Working Papers 1003, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Randolph Luca Bruno, 2006. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Rule of Law," LEM Papers Series 2006/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christian Hellwig, . "Policy in a Global Coordination Game: Multiplicity vs. Robust Predictions (November 2006, with Marios Angeletos and Alessandro Pavan)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 401, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2004. "Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1468R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lasse H. Pedersen & Markus Brunnermeier, 2004. "Predatory Trading," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 425, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Olli Castrén, 2006. "Do Financial Market Variables Show Indicator Properties Relative to Exchange Rate Returns?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 165-180, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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