Positive feedback trading under stress: Evidence from the US Treasury securities market
AbstractA vector autoregression is estimated on tick-by-tick data for quote-changes and signed trades of two-year, five-year and 10-year on-the-run US Treasury notes. Confirming the results found by Hasbrouck (1991) and others for the stock market, signed order flow tends to exert a strong effect on prices. More interestingly, however, there is often a strong effect in the opposite direction, particularly at times of volatile trading. Price declines elicit sales and price increases elicit purchases. An examination of tick-by-tick trading on an especially volatile day confirms this finding. At least in the US Treasury market, trades and price movements appear likely to exhibit positive feedback at short horizons, particularly during periods of market stress. This suggests that the standard analytical approach to the microstructure of financial markets, which focuses on the ways in which the information possessed by informed traders becomes incorporated into market prices through order flow, should be complemented by an account of how price changes affect trading decisions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 122.
Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Treasury bond market; positive feedback; market microstructure;
Other versions of this item:
- Benjamin Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Positive feedback trading under stress: evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 148-180 Bank for International Settlements.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
NBER Working Papers
2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- Piazzesi, Monika, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve With Macroeconomic Jump Effects," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA qt5946p7hn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
- Michael J. Fleming, 2001.
"Measuring treasury market liquidity,"
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
133, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
- Gabriele Galati & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2001. "The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets," BIS Working Papers 100, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.