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Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals

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  • Antonio Guarino

    (University College London)

  • Marco Cipriani

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

We study herd behavior in a laboratory ?nancial market with ?- nancial market professionals. An important novelty of the experi- mental design is the use of a strategy-like method. This allows us to detect herd behavior directly by observing subjects?decisions for all realizations of their private signal. In the paper, we compare two treatments - one in which the price adjusts to the order ?ow in such a way that herding should never occur, and one in which the presence of event uncertainty makes herding possible. In the ?rst treatment, traders herd seldom, in accordance with both the theory and previous experimental evidence on student subjects. A proportion of traders, however, engage in contrarianism, something not accounted for by the theory. In the second treatment, on the one hand, the proportion of herding decisions increases, but not as much as the theory would sug- gest; on the other hand, contrarianism disappears altogether. In both treatments, in contrast with what theory predicts, subjects sometimes prefer to abstain from trading, which a¤ects the process of price discovery negatively.

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Paper provided by ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London in its series WEF Working Papers with number 0047.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wef:wpaper:0047

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Cited by:
  1. Pop, Raluca Elena, 2012. "Herd behavior towards the market index: evidence from Romanian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 51595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
  3. Giovanni Ferri & Andrea Morone, 2008. "The Effect of Rating Agencies on Herd Behaviour," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2008_21, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00671378 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2010. "Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/288, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Oliver Schnusenberg & Chung-Ping Loh & Katrin Nihalani, 2013. "The Role of Financial Wellbeing, Sociopolitical Attitude, Self-Interest, and Lifestyle in One’s Attitude Toward Social Health Insurance," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 369-381, August.
  7. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
  8. Christopher Boortz & Stephanie Kremer & Simon Jurkatis & Dieter Nautz, 2014. "Information Risk, Market Stress and Institutional Herding in Financial Markets: New Evidence Through the Lens of a Simulated Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Alain Cohn & Jan Engelmann & Ernst Fehr & Michel Maréchal, 2013. "Evidence for countercyclical risk aversion: an experiment with financial professionals," UBSCENTER - Working Papers 004, UBS International Center of Economics in Society - Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. Chung-Ping Loh & Katrin Nihalani & Oliver Schnusenberg, 2012. "Measuring attitude toward social health insurance," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 13(6), pages 707-722, December.

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