Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information
AbstractWe propose a speculative attack model in which agents receive multiple public signals. It is characterised by its focus on an informational structure, which sets free from the strict separation between public information and private information. Diverse pieces of public information can be taken into account differently by players and are likely to lead to different appreciations ex post. This process defines players’ private value. The main result is to show that equilibrium uniqueness depends on two conditions: (i) signals are sufficiently dispersed (ii) private beliefs about the relative precision of these signals sufficiently differ. We derive some implications for information dissemination policy. Transparency in this context is multi-dimensional: it concerns the publicity of announcements, the number of signals disclosed as well as their precision. Especially, it seems that the central bank has better not publishing its forecast errors in order to maintain stability. An illustration to our analysis is the recent debate concerning the optimal monetary policy committee structure of central banks. Keywords: Speculative attack – coordination game – multiple equilibria – public and private information – transparency. JEL Classification: F31 – D82.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp570.
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Other versions of this item:
- Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2009. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 73-102, 03.
- Cornand, Camille & Heinemann, Frank, 2005. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 157, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-11-25 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2006-11-25 (Monetary Economics)
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