This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Evans, Martin D.D.
Lyons, Richard K.

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Macro news can affect currency prices directly and indirectly via order flow. Past research shows that the direct effects of scheduled macro news account for less than 10% of daily price variance. This paper shows that the arrival of macro news can account for more than 30% of daily price variance. Two features of our analysis account for this finding: (1) We consider the broad spectrum of macro news items that market participants observe, not just scheduled announcements. (2) We allow the arrival of news to affect prices indirectly via its impact on the volatility of order flow. Our analysis shows that order flow variations contribute more to currency price dynamics following the arrival of public macro news than at other times. This is not consistent with news effects being common knowledge that is impounded in price directly. Roughly two-thirds of the total effect of macro news on the DM/$ exchange rate is transmitted via order flow.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBX-4RKMJ5T-1/1/b5d582352b42e67a31c401f2c400ef11
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 26-50
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:88:y:2008:i:1:p:26-50

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 621-36, October.
  8. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Time-varying liquidity in foreign exchange," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1025-1051, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jones, Charles M. & Lipson, Marc L., 1999. "Execution Costs of Institutional Equity Orders," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 123-140, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jones, C.M. & Lipson, M.L., 1999. "Execution Costs of Institutional Equity Orders," Papers 99-1, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  19. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Chinn, Menzie David, 1991. "Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 214-230, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  22. Goodhart, C A E, et al, 1993. "New Effects in a High-Frequency Model of the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  24. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 117-134, March. [Downloadable!]
  25. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  27. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.