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When information about fundamentals is symmetric, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of asymmetric information-inventory-information-that is unrelated to fundamentals, but still forecasts future price (by forecasting future discount factors). We find that inventory information in FX does indeed forecast discount factors, and does so over both short and long horizons. The permanent effect from inventory information ranges between 15 and 30 percent of that from public information.

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Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~03-03-33.

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~03-03-33

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Postal: Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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Postal: Roger Lagunoff Professor of Economics Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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