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FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans (Department of Economics at Georgetown University and the N.B.E.R.)

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Abstract

I examine the sources of exchange rate dynamics by focusing on the information structure of FX trading. This structure permits the existence of an equilibrium distribution of transaction prices at a point in time. I develop and estimate a model of the price distribution using data from the Deutsche mark/dollar market that prroduces two striking results:(1) Much of the short-term volatility in exchange rates comes from sampling the heterogeneous trading decisions of dealers in a distribution that, under normal market conditions, changes comparatively slowly; (2) public news is rarely the predominant source of exchange rate movements over "any"horizon. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2405-2447
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:6:p:2405-2447

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Takatosh Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is there private information in the FX market? the Tokyo experiment," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chakrabarti, Rajesh, 2000. "Just another day in the inter-bank foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 29-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Goodhart, C A E & Giugale, M, 1993. "From Hour to Hour in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 1-34, March.
  9. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: A mean-variance example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1989. "Intra Day And Inter Market Volatility In Foreign Exchange Rates," Papers 8811, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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