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DM-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies

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Author Info
Torben G. Andersen
Tim Bollerslev

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Abstract

This paper characterizes the volatility in the DM-dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five-minute returns. Our modeling approach explicitly captures the pronounced intraday activity patterns, the strong macroeconomic announcement effects, and the volatility persistence, or ARCH effects, familiar from lower frequency returns. The different features are separately quantified and shown, in conjunction, to account for a substantial fraction of the realized return variability, both at the intradaily and daily levels. Moreover, we demonstrate how the high frequency returns, when properly modeled, constitute an extremely valuable and vastly underutilized resource for better understanding the volatility dynamics at the daily or lower frequencies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5783.

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Date of creation: Oct 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5783

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C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Melvin & Xixi Yin, . "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Working Papers 96/1, Arizona State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Price formation and liquidity in the U.S. treasuries market: evidence from intraday patterns around announcements," Research Paper 9633, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nam, Jouahn & Wang, Jun & Zhang, Ge, 2004. "Strategic trading against retail investors with disposition effects," Working Papers 2004-11, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-François, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David G. McMillan & Alan E. H. Speight, 2006. "Heterogeneous information flows and intra-day volatility dynamics: evidence from the UK FTSE-100 stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 959-972, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Magdalena E. Sokalska & Ananda Chanda & Robert F. Engle, 2005. "High Frequency Multiplicative Component Garch," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 409, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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