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Rational Asset Price Movements Without News

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  • David Romer

Abstract

This paper argues that an important part of movements in asset prices may be caused by neither external news nor irrationality, but the by revelation of information by the trading process itself. Two models are developed that illustrate this general idea. One model is based on investor uncertainty about the quality of other investors' information: the other is based on widespread dispersion of information and small costs to trading. The analysis is used to suggest a possible rational explanation of the October 1987 crash.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4121.

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Date of creation: Jul 1992
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Publication status: published as American Economic Review, vol 83, (5), pp. 1112-1130 (December 1993)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4121

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  1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July.
  3. repec:fth:coluec:602 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1991. "Asymetric Information, Adjustment Costs and Market Dynamics," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1565, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-42, May.
  6. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Grossman, Sanford J, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 431-49, October.
  9. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kraus, Alan & Smith, Maxwell, 1989. " Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-69, July.
  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  13. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes and Wisdom After the Fact," Discussion Papers 1992_18, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  14. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
  15. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  16. repec:fth:coluec:601 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Mirman, Leonard J. & Reisman, Haim, 1988. "Price fluctuations when only prices reveal information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 305-310.
  18. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
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