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Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

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Author Info
Barsky, Robert B.
Long, J. Bradford De

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Abstract

The bull and bear markets of this century have suggested that large stock market swings reflect irrational We argue instead that investors perceived shifts in the long-run rate of future growth and that stock prices are sufficiently sensitive to expectations about the future that these perceived shifts plausibly generated the swings of the twentieth century. We document that analysts often viewed as assessed fundamentals, based on their perceptions of future economic growth, in a way that tracked decade-to-decade swings closely.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 50 (1990)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 265-281
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:50:y:1990:i:02:p:265-281_03

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  1. Filip Abraham & Hilde Leliaert, 1991. "Foreign dependence of individual stock prices: The role of aggregate product market developments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michele Bagella & Rocco Ciciretti, 2009. "Financial markets and the post-crisis scenario," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 215-225, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 22-34. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1992. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990," NBER Working Papers 4054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Holinski Nils & Vermeulen Robert, 2009. "The International Wealth Effect: A Global Error-Correcting Analysis," Research Memoranda 019, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mele, Antonio, 2004. "General Properties of Rational Stock-Market Fluctuations," Economics Series 153, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  8. David Romer, 1992. "Rational Asset Price Movements Without News," NBER Working Papers 4121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991. "Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, 1990. "The Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 3523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
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  12. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, . "The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _120, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1992. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," NBER Working Papers 3995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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