IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jechis/v50y1990i02p265-281_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

Author

Listed:
  • Barsky, Robert B.
  • Long, J. Bradford De

Abstract

The bull and bear markets of this century have suggested that large stock market swings reflect irrational “fads and fashions.†We argue instead that investors perceived shifts in the long-run rate of future growth and that stock prices are sufficiently sensitive to expectations about the future that these perceived shifts plausibly generated the swings of the twentieth century. We document that analysts often viewed as “smart money†assessed fundamentals, based on their perceptions of future economic growth, in a way that tracked decade-to-decade swings closely.

Suggested Citation

  • Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 265-281, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:50:y:1990:i:02:p:265-281_03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022050700036421/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    2. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    3. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
    4. Candelon, B. & Metiu, N., 2009. "Testing for exceptional bulls and bears: a non-parametric perspective," Research Memorandum 017, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1995. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1870-1990," Economic History 9509002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    7. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, 1990. "The Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 3523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Farzan Soleymani & Eric Paquet, 2021. "Deep Graph Convolutional Reinforcement Learning for Financial Portfolio Management -- DeepPocket," Papers 2105.08664, arXiv.org.
    9. Mele, Antonio, 2004. "General properties of rational stock-market fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24701, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Richard Ablin, 1994. "Exchange Rate Systems, Incomes Policy and Stabilization Some Short and Long-Run Considerations," Bank of Israel Working Papers 1994.01, Bank of Israel.
    11. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    12. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    13. Filip Abraham & Hilde Leliaert, 1991. "Foreign dependence of individual stock prices: The role of aggregate product market developments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, February.
    14. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-1130, December.
    15. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _120, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    16. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1991. "The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from clsoed-end mutual funds," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 675-700, September.
    17. Michele Bagella & Rocco Ciciretti, 2009. "Financial markets and the post-crisis scenario," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(3), pages 215-225, September.
    18. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1992. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990," NBER Working Papers 4054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kaliva, Kasimir & Koskinen, Lasse, 2008. "Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 592-603, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:50:y:1990:i:02:p:265-281_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jeh .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.