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Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

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  • Bubák, Vít
  • Kocenda, Evzen
  • Zikes, Filip

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the CE foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech and, prior to the recent turbulent economic events, Polish currencies, we find no significant spillovers running from the EUR/USD to the CE foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2829-2841

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:2829-2841

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Keywords: Foreign exchange markets Volatility Spillovers Intraday data Nonlinear dynamics European emerging markets;

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References

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  2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & John Hunter & Faek Menla Ali, 2013. "On the Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Banking Crisis of 2007-2010," CESifo Working Paper Series 4189, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. A. Khalifa & S. Hammoudeh & E. Otranto & S. Ramchander, 2012. "Volatility Transmission across Currency, Commodity and Equity Markets under Multi-Chain Regime Switching: Implications for Hedging and Portfolio Allocation," Working Paper CRENoS 201214, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  5. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers: Revisiting the Diebold-Yilmaz (2009) spillover index with realized semivariance," Papers 1308.1221, arXiv.org.
  6. Balazs Egert & Evžen Kocenda, 2013. "The Impact of Macro News and Central Bank Communication on Emerging European Forex Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4288, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava, August.
  8. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2013. "Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets," Working Papers 154, Bank of Greece.
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  10. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Characterizing emerging European stock markets through complex networks: From local properties to self-similar characteristics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(13), pages 3629-3637.
  11. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2013. "Realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets: A multivariate HAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 586-597.
  12. Carol Osler & Xuhang Wang, 2012. "The Microstructure of Currency Markets," Working Papers 49, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  13. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  14. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2014. "Realized volatility transmission: The role of jumps and leverage effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 111-115.
  15. Michał Adam, 2013. "Spillovers and contagion in the sovereign CDS market," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 44(6), pages 571-604.
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