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Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • Vít Bubák
  • Evžen Kocenda
  • Filip Zikes

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the Central European foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech currency, we find no significant spillovers running from euro/dollar to the Central European foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover index, and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Vít Bubák & Evžen Kocenda & Filip Zikes, 2010. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3063, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3063
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange markets; volatility; spillovers; intraday data; nonlinear dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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