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Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence

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  • Lewis, John

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of the nominal convergence process on the ability of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to meet both the inflation and the exchange rate criteria for Eurozone entry. The size of these convergence effects on the exchange rate (for inflation targeters) and for inflation differentials (under a fixed exchange rate) is estimated for a variety of different convergence scenarios. The key result, robust across all scenarios, is that countries with fixed exchange rates will find it much harder to simultaneously meet the criteria than inflation targeters. Probit estimates on the ability of a country to get inflation below the reference value under a fixed exchange rate show a strong effect for the relative price level.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 508-524

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Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:25:y:2009:i:4:p:508-524

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544

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Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe Nominal convergence Euro adoption Exchange rate regime;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
  2. Juan Ignacio Aldasoro & Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area and their Determinants – an empirical view," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp958, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Zsolt Darvas & Gy�rgy Szap�ry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 304, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 157-177, July.
  5. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Vlastimir Vukovic & Aleksandar Zdravkovic, 2011. "The Inflation and Exchange Rate in the Five Balkan Countries from Maastricht Convergence Criteria Prospect," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  7. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of Expansion of the European Union?," DNB Working Papers 151, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

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