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Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria During a Period of Nominal Convergence

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  • John Lewis

Abstract

This paper analyses the problem faced by CEECs wishing to join the Euro who must hit both an inflation and exchange rate criterion during a period of nominal convergence. This process requires either an inflation differential, an appreciating nominal exchange rate, or a combination of the two, which makes it difficult to simultaneously satisfy the exchange rate and inflation criteria. The authorities can use their monetary policy to hit one criterion, but must essentially just "hope" to satisfy the other one. The paper quantifies the likely size and speed of these convergence effects, their impact on inflation and exchange rates, and their consequences for the simultaneous compliance with both criteria under an inflation targeting setup and under a fixed exchange rate regime. The key result is that under an inflation targeting regime, the nominal appreciation implied by convergence is not big enough to threaten a breach of the exchange rate criterion, but for countries with fixed exchange rates, inflation is likely to exceed the reference value. This result is robust to plausible changes in the assumed convergence scenario.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 130.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:130

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Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; Nominal Convergence; Euro Adoption;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  2. Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 157-177, July.
  3. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
  4. Václav Zdárek & Juan Ignacio Aldasoro, 2009. "Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area and Their Determinants - An Empirical View," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 450, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of Expansion of the European Union?," DNB Working Papers 151, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Vlastimir Vukovic & Aleksandar Zdravkovic, 2011. "The Inflation and Exchange Rate in the Five Balkan Countries from Maastricht Convergence Criteria Prospect," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  8. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

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