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The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe

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Author Info
Karsten Staehr ()
Abstract

This paper discusses the prospects of the new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe joining the European Economic and Monetary Union in the short and medium term. The countries must attain and sustain inflation rates sufficiently low to abide by the Maastricht inflation criterion, but this is complicated by the process of real convergence exerting upward pressure on the inflation rate. The paper discusses different strategies which the new EU countries can apply. It is argued that no one-size-fits-all policy is available and that some countries might be better off postponing EMU membership in pursuit of other goals. Still, the special circumstances concerning the Central and Eastern European EU countries suggest that the process of admission of new countries to the EMU should be adaptive and pragmatic

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Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2008-04.

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Date of creation: 30 Oct 2008
Date of revision: 30 Oct 2008
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2008-4

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Union; inflation; Maastricht inflation criterion; CEE;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
F55 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

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  1. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," Working Papers 138, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0824, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jaan Masso & Karsten Staehr, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics And Nominal Adjustment In The Baltic States," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 35, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Broda, Christian, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes and national price levels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. F. Gulcin Ozkan & Anne Sibert & Alan Sutherland, 2004. "Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 635-652, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa-Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jonas, Jiri, 2006. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 328-345, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark A. Wynne & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2004. "Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 79-112, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ashoka Mody & Deniz Igan & Stefania Fabrizio, 2007. "The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 07/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Olga Arratibel & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela & Christian Thimann, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
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