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Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies

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Author Info
Zsolt Darvas () (Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest and Argenta ZRt.)
György Szapáry () (Central European University and former Deputy Governor of Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Abstract

The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by the new members on the road to the euro and the strategies for and timing of euro adoption. We investigate the real-nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro area entry. We argue that the initial level of economic development as measured by per capita income and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and on the timing of entry into euro area. This is because the lower is the per capita income, the larger is the price level gap to close and the greater is the danger of credit booms and overheating. We argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to manage the price level catching-up process. We suggest a modification in the Maastricht inflation criterion which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

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File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2008_1_darvas_szapary.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 0801.

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Length: 83 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0801

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Related research
Keywords: euro area enlargement; convergence; exchange rate; inflation; Maastricht;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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  1. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited," BIS Working Papers 270, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "Monetary Transmission in three Central European Economies: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 0903, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0824, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daniel Stavárek, 2009. "Assessment of the exchange rate convergence in Euro-candidate countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(25), pages 159-180, February. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Katharina Steiner, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," NBER Working Papers 14438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Alan Ahearne & Herbert Brücker & Zsolt Darvas & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2009. "Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement," Working Papers 0902, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 25 May 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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