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The role of the Exchange Rate Regime in the process of Real and Nominal Convergence

Author

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  • Gaetano D’Adamo

    (University of Valencia)

  • Riccardo Rovelli

    (University of Bologna and IZA)

Abstract

This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime in the process of price convergence in Europe. During the last decade, a large strand of literature has flourished which studies the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in explaining nominal convergence. However, a general result of this literature is that such hypothesis can only explain a minor part of the excess inflation registered in European catching-up countries, while other factors may be at play. The role of the exchange rate regime in convergence in Europe, however, has so far been overlooked. First, we model the (endogenous) choice of the exchange rate regime and, in a second stage, estimate a Balassa-Samuelson type of regression for each regime. The results show that, for countries which pegged to or adopted the euro, the effect of a 1% increase in dual productivity growth (i.e. the difference between traded and non-traded sector productivity growth) on the dual inflation differential is more than twice as big as that of “flexible” countries. Our results suggest that too early adoption of the euro may per se foster excess inflation in a catching-up country which cannot be accounted for by the process of real convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano D’Adamo & Riccardo Rovelli, 2013. "The role of the Exchange Rate Regime in the process of Real and Nominal Convergence," Working Papers 1314, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1314
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    2. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Jaromir Gec & Dana Hajkova & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jan Kral & , 2020. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2020," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as20 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, November.
    3. Zoran Grubišiæ & Sandra Kamenkoviæ & Aleksandar Zdravkoviæ, 2018. "Impact of government balance and exchange rate regime on current account during the economic cycle: evidence from CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 309-336.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Regimes; Balassa-Samuelson Effect; Inflation; Euro adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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