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How Useful Is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) Index for Surveillance in East Asia?

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  • Victor Pontines

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

Abstract

An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index is constructed using an alternative procedure which minimizes a basket or portfolio of assets expressed in terms of national currencies. Using this estimated ACU index and an ACU Deviation Indicator, the main finding of this study based on the current trajectory of East Asian currencies relative to this regional ACU average or benchmark is that there is a formation of two contrasting groups of countries in the region—one a group of strong currencies and the other a group of weak currencies. We emphasize that the implication of this contrasting trajectory in East Asian intra-regional exchange rates is to disturb the competitive trading relationships in the region which may result in wasteful beggar-thyneighbor policies in the region. As emphasized by other recent studies, e.g., Kawai and Takagi (2012), the region needs a kind of framework for exchange rate policy coordination that will promote intra-regional exchange rate stability. We suggest several ways in which the region can capitalize on using this ACU index in the immediate term for surveillance purposes, particularly, for purposes of assessing “over- and undervaluation†of the individual currencies from the regional ACU average and for flagging emerging vulnerabilities in individual economies in the region.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Governance Working Papers with number 23398.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:eab:govern:23398

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Keywords: Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index; intra-regional exchange rate; finnacial surveillance;

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References

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  1. Girardin, Eric, 2011. "A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia: It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It," ADBI Working Papers 262, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Már Gudmundsson, 2008. "Near-Term Exchange Rate Flexibility In East Asia: Precursor To Regional Monetary Union?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 62-82, 02.
  6. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2008. "Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-365.
  7. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A survey of the evidence," Policy Discussion Papers 12006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  8. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2010. "Fear of Appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The Role of the Chinese Renminbi," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp78, June.
  9. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
  10. Masahiro Kawai, 2008. "Toward A Regional Exchange Rate Regime In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103, 02.
  11. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Too Much of a Good Thing?: The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  12. Saravelo, George & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  13. Gupta, Abhijit Sen, 2012. "Exchange Rate Coordination in Asia: Evidence using the Asian Currency Unit," ADBI Working Papers 356, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  14. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
  15. Thorbecke, Willem, 2010. "An empirical analysis of ASEAN's labor-intensive exports," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 505-513, December.
  16. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  17. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter Nicholas Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2010. "Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(01), pages 83-101.
  18. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  19. Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan, 2008. "The Asian Currency Unit (ACU): exploring alternative currency weights," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 269-278.
  20. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  21. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-72, September.
  22. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "A basket peg policy: Operational issues for developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279, February.
  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  24. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
  25. Barry Eichengreen & Raul Razo-Garcia, 2011. "How Reliable are De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications?," NBER Working Papers 17318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Hovanov, Nikolai V. & Kolari, James W. & Sokolov, Mikhail V., 2004. "Computing currency invariant indices with an application to minimum variance currency baskets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1481-1504, June.
  27. Victor Pontines, 2009. "Optimal common currency basket in East Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1139-1141.
  28. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 484, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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