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Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach

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  • Marek A. Dąbrowski
  • Monika Papież
  • Sławomir Śmiech

Abstract

This paper offers a new de facto exchange rate regime classification that draws on the strengths of three popular classifications. Its two hallmarks are the careful treatment of a nexus between an exchange rate regime and financial openness and the use of formal statistical tools (the trimmed k-means and k-nearest neighbour methods). It is demonstrated that our strategy minimises the impact of differences between market-determined and official exchange rates on the ‘fix’ and ‘float’ categories. Moreover, it is more suited to assess empirical relevance of the Mundellian trilemma and ‘irreconcilable duo’ hypotheses. Using comparative analysis we find that the degree of agreement between classifications is moderate: the null of no association is strongly rejected, but its strength ranges from low to moderate. Moreover, it is shown that our classification is the most strongly associated with each of the other classifications and as such can be considered (closest to) a centre of a space of alternative classifications. Finally, we demonstrate that unlike other classifications, ours lends more support to the Mundellian trilemma than to the ‘irreconcilable duo’ hypothesis. Overall, our classification cannot be considered a variant of any other de facto classification. It is a genuinely new classification.Highlights We develop a statistically-based de facto exchange rate regime classificationThe trimmed k-means and k-nearest neighbour methods are usedFix and float categories are identified with the correction for financial opennessThe new classification is a centre of a space of alternative classificationsOur classification supports the trilemma rather than irreconcilable duo hypothesis

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  • Marek A. Dąbrowski & Monika Papież & Sławomir Śmiech, 2020. "Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 821-849, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:29:y:2020:i:7:p:821-849
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2020.1748692
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    Cited by:

    1. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2021. "Output volatility and exchange rates: New evidence from the updated de facto exchange rate regime classifications," MPRA Paper 107133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "A new approach to estimation of actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," MPRA Paper 95280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    4. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    5. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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