Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies
AbstractFollowing the recent global financial crisis, questions about the mechanisms that can help countries cope with large shocks have resurfaced. This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and output rebound. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions for pegs, and taking account of other likely determinants, we find that the growth performance for pegs was not different from that of floats during the crisis. The picture is different for the recovery period 2010–2011, as pegs appear to be faring worse, with growth recovering more slowly than floats. These results suggest an asymmetric effect of the regime during and recovering from the crisis. We also find that proxies of the trade and financial channels are important determinants of growth performance during the crisis, while only the trade channel appears important for the recovery thus far.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617
Global financial crisis; Fixed exchange rate; Growth; Emerging market economies;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007.
"Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops,"
200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
- Abdul Abiad & Petya Koeva Brooks & Irina Tytell & Daniel Leigh & Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "Whatâ€™S the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/245, International Monetary Fund.
- Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2003.
"Using Matching, Instrumental Variables and Control Functions to Estimate Economic Choice Models,"
IZA Discussion Papers
768, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- James Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano, 2004. "Using Matching, Instrumental Variables, and Control Functions to Estimate Economic Choice Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 30-57, February.
- James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano, 2003. "Using Matching, Instrumental Variables and Control Functions to Estimate Economic Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 9497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heckman, James & Navarro-Lozano, Salvador, 2003. "Using matching, instrumental variables and control functions to estimate economic choice models," Working Paper Series 2003:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
- Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001.
"A corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises,"
01.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004.
"Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Gaston Gelos & Robert Rennhack & James P Walsh & Pelin Berkmen, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/280, International Monetary Fund.
- Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2005.
"Output Costs, Currency Crises, and Interest Rate Defense of a Peg,"
NBER Working Papers
11791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2007. "Output Costs, Currency Crises and Interest Rate Defence of a Peg," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 216-239, 01.
- Joseph E. Gagnon, 2009. "The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit," Policy Briefs PB09-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Caliendo, Marco & Kopeinig, Sabine, 2005.
"Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1588, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, 02.
- Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2005. "Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 485, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Vasco Cúrdia, 2005.
"Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops,"
0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
- Alfred Sitz & Aneliya Adzhemova & Atanas Pekanov, 2013. "Bulgarien: wirtschaftspolitische Strategie und ökonomische Entwicklung seit der Öffnung," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 39(1), pages 69-86.
- Rashid, Abdul & Saedan, Mashael, 2013.
"Financial Crisis and Exchange Rates in Emerging Economics: An Empirical Analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework,"
49832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abdul Rashid & Mashael Bin Saedan, 2014. "Financial crisis and exchange rates in emerging economies: An empirical analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 9(4), pages 86-96, January.
- Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
- Aleksandra Iwulska & Naotaka Sugawara & Juan Zalduendo, 2012. "Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: an Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 438, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.