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How Useful Is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) Index for Surveillance in East Asia?

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  • Pontines, Victor

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

An Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index is constructed using an alternative procedure which minimizes a basket or portfolio of assets expressed in terms of national currencies. Using this estimated ACU Index and an ACU Deviation Indicator, the main finding of this study based on the current trajectory of East Asian currencies relative to this regional ACU average or benchmark, is that there is a formation of two contrasting groups of countries in the region—one a group of strong currencies and the other a group of weak currencies. We suggest several ways in which the region can capitalize on using this ACU index in the immediate term for surveillance purposes, particularly, for purposes of assessing “over- and undervaluation” of the individual currencies from the regional ACU average and for flagging emerging vulnerabilities in individual economies in the region.

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File URL: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2013/03/27/5575.acu.index.surveillance.east.asia/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 413.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 29 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0413

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Keywords: asian currency unit; acu index; amro; acu deviation indicator; beggar-thy-neighbor;

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References

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  1. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
  2. Hwee Kwan Chow & Peter Nicholas Kriz & Roberto S. Mariano & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2010. "Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(01), pages 83-101.
  3. Gupta, Abhijit Sen, 2012. "Exchange Rate Coordination in Asia: Evidence using the Asian Currency Unit," ADBI Working Papers 356, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Masahiro Kawai, 2008. "Toward A Regional Exchange Rate Regime In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103, 02.
  5. Victor Pontines, 2009. "Optimal common currency basket in East Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1139-1141.
  6. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A survey of the evidence," Policy Discussion Papers 12006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2010. "Fear of Appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The Role of the Chinese Renminbi," MPRA Paper 25408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, 06.
  9. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Fundamental Pitfalls of Exchange Market Pressure-Based Approaches to Identification of Currency Crises," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-02, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  10. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
  11. Eric Girardin, 2011. "A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia : It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It," Finance Working Papers 23275, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
  13. Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan, 2008. "The Asian Currency Unit (ACU): exploring alternative currency weights," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 269-278.
  14. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-72, September.
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  21. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  22. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
  23. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  24. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "A basket peg policy: Operational issues for developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279, February.
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  26. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  28. Thorbecke, Willem, 2010. "An empirical analysis of ASEAN's labor-intensive exports," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 505-513, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 484, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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