The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes
AbstractIn recent years, analysts and policy makers alike have been evaluating the nexus between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability. Among the most important questions is why have some countries adopted rigid, including fixed, exchange-rate paper addresses this question from a political economy perspective both theoretically and empirically. The model assumes that the monetary authority minimizes a quadratic loss function that captures the trade-off between infla- tion and unemployment. This framework is initially applied to the case where monetary authorities must choose between a (permanently) fixed and a flexible exchange-rate regime. In choosing the regime it is assumed authorities compare the expected losses under each scenario. The model is subsequently extended extended to cover the somewhat more complicated case where the authoriities must choose between fixed-but-adjustable and flexible exchange-rate regimes. In this latter case, potential political costs of abandoningithe pegged rate are taken into account. In the empirical section, an unbalanced panel data set of 63 countries from 1980-1992 is used to estimate a series of probit models, with a binary exchange-rate regime index as the dependent variable. Among the most important explanatory variables were measures of countries' historical degree of political instability, measures of the probability of abandoning pegged rates, and variables related to the relative importance of real (unemployment) targets in the preferences of monetary authorities. The regression results support the political economy approach developed in the theoretical discussion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5756.
Date of creation: Sep 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Ito, Takatoshi and Anne O. Krueger (eds.) Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, National Bureau of Economic Research East Asia Seminar on Economics. University of Chicago Press, 1999.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett, 1993.
"The Political Economy of Capital Controls,"
NBER Working Papers
4353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert P. Flood & Peter Isard, 1989. "Monetary Policy Strategies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 612-632, September.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1994. "The Political Economy of Inflation and Stabilization in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 235-66, January.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993.
"Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
93-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C94-036, University of California at Berkeley.
- Robert P. Flood & Peter Isard, 1988. "Monetary Policy Strategies," NBER Working Papers 2770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shantayanan Devarajan & Dani Rodrik, 1991.
"Do the Benefits of Fixed Exchange Rates Outweigh Their Costs? The Franc Zone in Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
3727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Do the benefits of fixed exchange rates outweigh their costs? The Franc Zone in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 777, The World Bank.
- Peter Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 78, International Monetary Fund.
- Bruno, M., 1991. "High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy," Princeton Studies in International Economics, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University, 183, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.