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Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights

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  • Jeffrey Frankel
  • Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

This paper offers a new approach to estimate countries’ de facto exchange rate regimes, a synthesis of two techniques. One is a technique that the authors have used in the past to estimate implicit de facto weights when the hypothesis is a basket peg with little flexibility. The second is a technique used by others to estimate the de facto degree of exchange rate flexibility when the hypothesis is an anchor to the dollar or some other single major currency, but with a possibly substantial degree of flexibility around that anchor. Because many currencies today follow variants of band-basket-crawl, it is important to have available a technique that can cover both dimensions, inferring weights and flexibility. We try out the technique on some 20 currencies over the period 1980–2007. Most are currencies that have officially used baskets as anchors for at least part of this sample period. But a few are known floaters or known simple peggers. In general, the synthesis technique seems to work as it should. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 384–416. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.18; published online 1 July 2008

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 384-416

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:384-416

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References

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," NBER Working Papers 4335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Serven, Luis & Frankel, Jeffrey & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Verifying exchange rate regimes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2397, The World Bank.
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  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Is Japan creating a yen bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 92-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
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  17. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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