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New Estimation Of China'S Exchange Rate Regime

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

The present paper updates the question: what precisely is the exchange rate regime that China has put into place since 2005, when it announced a move away from the US dollar peg? Is it a basket anchor with the possibility of cumulatable daily appreciations, as was announced at the time? We apply to this question a new approach of estimating countries' de facto exchange rate regimes, a synthesis of two techniques. One is a technique that has been used in the past to estimate implicit de facto currency weights when the hypothesis is a basket peg with little flexibility. The second is a technique used to estimate the de facto degree of exchange rate flexibility when the hypothesis is an anchor to the US dollar or some other single major currency. Because the RMB and many other currencies today purportedly follow variants of band-basket-crawl, it is important to have available a technique that can cover both dimensions, inferring weights and inferring flexibility. The synthesis adds a variable representing 'exchange market pressure' to the currency basket equation, whereby the degree of flexibility is estimated at the same time as the currency weights. This approach reveals that by mid-2007, the RMB basket had switched a substantial part of the US dollar's weight onto the euro. The implication is that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar during this period was due to the appreciation of the euro against the dollar, not to any upward trend in the RMB relative to its basket. Copyright 2009 The Author. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 346-360

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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:3:p:346-360

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References

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  1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
  2. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," NBER Working Papers 14016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Is Japan creating a yen bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 92-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
  7. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
  8. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  11. Eiji Ogawa & Michiru Sakane, 2006. "The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform," Discussion papers 06019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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Cited by:
  1. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Javier Beverinotti, . "The Real Exchange Rate, Sectoral Allocation and Development in China and East Asia: A Simple Exposition," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/10/09, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  2. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Raphael Auer, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through, domestic competition and inflation -- evidence from the 2005/08 revaluation of the Renminbi," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 68, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.

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