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The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

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  • Eiji Ogawa
  • Michiru Sakane
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we investigate the actual exchange rate policy conducted by the Chinese government after the Chinese exchange rate system reform on July 21 2005. Also, we investigate long-run effect (Balassa-Samuelson effect) on the Chinese yuan. We found that the Chinese government had a statistically significant but small change in exchange rate policy during our sample period to January 25, 2006. It is not identified that the Chinese monetary authority is adopting the currency basket system because the change is too small in the economic sense. On one hand, higher growth rate of productivity will appreciate the Chinese yuan in terms of the US dollar and the Japanese yen while higher growth rates of productivity in Chinese tradable good sector tend to give the Balassa-Samuleson effect, that is undervaluation bias, to the Chinese yuan.

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    File URL: http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/06e019.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 06019.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06019

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    1. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
    2. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1, May.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    7. Eiji Ogawa & Lijian Sun, 2001. "How Were Capital Inflows Stimulated under the Dollar Peg System?," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 151-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60, November.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. OGAWA Eiji & Zhiqian WANG, 2012. "The AMU Deviation Indicators Based on the Purchasing Power Parity and Adjusted by the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 12078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. OGAWA Eiji & SHIMIZU Junko, 2007. "Progress toward a Common Currency Basket System in East Asia," Discussion papers 07002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Xie, Daniel, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp10-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2008. "Adopting a Common Currency Basket Arrangement into the ASEAN Plus Three," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 219-237 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ogawa, Eiji & Kudo, Takeshi, 2007. "Asymmetric responses of East Asian currencies to the US dollar depreciation for reducing the US current account deficits," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 175-194, February.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime," Working Paper Series rwp08-077, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Iwatsubo, 2009. "External Adjustments and Coordinated Exchange Rate Policy in Asia," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-048, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Liang, J. & Gao, Y., 2012. "Calibration of implied volatility for the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan from its derivatives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1278-1285.
    10. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Jiang Liang, 2010. "The PPP hypothesis in the US/China relationship. Fractional integration, time variation and data frequency," Faculty Working Papers 13/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    11. OGAWA Eiji & Zhiqian WANG, 2013. "How Did the Global Financial Crisis Misalign East Asian Currencies?," Discussion papers 13096, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems," NBER Working Papers 12198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Eiji Ogawa & Zhiqian Wang, 2012. "The AMU Deviation Indicators Based on the Purchasing Power Parity and Adjusted by the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-255, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. Eiji Ogawa & Takeshi Kudo, 2007. "Possible depreciation of the US dollar for unsustainable current account deficit in the United States," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 24-30, 01.
    15. Ogawa, Eiji & Shimizu, Junko, 2006. "Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 590-611, December.

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