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The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue

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Author Info
Ronald McKinnon
Gunther Schnabl

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Abstract

Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies - except for Japan - informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen, thereby aggravating the crisis. To limit future misalignments, the IMF wants East Asian currencies to float freely. Alternatively, authors have proposed increasing the weight of the yen in East Asian currency baskets. However, dollar pegs are entirely rational from the perspective of each Asian country - both to facilitate hedging by merchants and banks against exchange risk, and to help central banks anchor their domestic price levels. Post-crisis, as the East Asian economies transform themselves from being dollar debtors into dollar creditors, they face 'conflicted virtue': pressure to appreciate their currencies that could lead to a deflationary spiral. Rather than undervaluing their currencies to promote exports as is commonly alleged, East Asian governments are trapped into returning to - and then maintaining - soft dollar pegs. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2004

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (07)
Pages: 169-201
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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:169-201

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  1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Giancarol Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Competitive devaluations: a welfare-based approach," Staff Reports 58, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
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  7. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," International Finance 0410008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue," Working Papers 03007, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Schnabl, Gunther & Baur, Dirk, 2002. "Purchasing power parity: Granger causality tests for the yen-dollar exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 425-444, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sajid Anwar & Desh Gupta, 2006. "Financial Restructuring and Economic Growth in Thailand," Global Economic Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 113-127, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. H. Gao, 2008. "Global dollar standard: challenges for Asian financial integration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 369-382, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "International Capital Markets, Macroeconomic Stability, and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS and East Asia," International Finance 0410009, EconWPA, revised 01 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2007. "A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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