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Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

More than five years after the onset of the Asian crisis, the characteristics of the exchange rate regimes of East Asian economies remain a topic of considerable discussion. The purpose of this paper is to investigate what affected the values of three ASEAN currencies, the Malaysia ringgit, the Singapore dollar, and the Thai baht after the crisis. The particular interest in our analysis is to explore why the East Asian currencies, which temporarily reduced correlations with the U.S. dollar after the crisis, had a tendency to revert back to de facto pegs against the U.S. dollar in the late 1990s. Based on high-frequency day-to-day observations, we examine how and when these three ASEAN currencies changed their correlations with the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen in the post-crisis period. Before September 1st 1998, these currencies increased correlations with the Japanese yen in the post-crisis period. In particular, the increased correlations were larger than theoretical correlations based on the trade weights. The increase in correlations with the Japanese yen was, however, temporary. After Malaysia adopted the fixed exchange rate, both the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht increased correlations with the U.S. dollar drastically and began reverting back to de facto pegs against the U.S. dollar. A part of the change was attributable to asymmetric responses to the yen-dollar exchange rate. The change was, however, explained quite well by the strong linkage among the ASEAN countries. This implies that a regime switch in Malaysia had an enormously large impact on the exchange rates of the other ASEAN countries in the post-crisis period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-181.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf181

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References

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  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
  2. Shinji Takagi, 1996. "The Yen and Its East Asian Neighbors, 1980-1995: Cooperation or Competition?," NBER Working Papers 5720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60, November.
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Eiji Ogawa & Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1999. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," NBER Working Papers 6729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
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Cited by:
  1. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia become More Flexible Post crisis? Re-VISITING the EVIDENCE," Finance Working Papers 22563, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2010. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," Working Papers 10/69, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  3. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2006. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in ASEAN:A New Empirical Test Based on Intra-daily Data (Forthcoming in "Singapore Economic Review". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-079, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  4. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia after the Crisis: Implications from Intra-daily Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-247, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  5. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai & Sun, Wei, 2007. "Characterizing exchange rate policy in East Asia: A reconsideration," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 448-465, June.

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