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Should small open economies in East Asia put all their eggs in one basket: the role of balance sheet effects

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Author Info

  • Slavi T. Slavov

    (Pomona College)

Abstract

Yen-dollar fluctuations increase macroeconomic instability in small economies in East Asia. I investigate the choice of an exchange rate regime for these countries so as to minimize the adverse effects of this volatility. I build a sticky-price dynamic model of a small economy whose trade is invoiced in dollar and yen. First, I show the conditions under which pegging to a tradeweighted basket of the two currencies is the optimal policy for the small economy. Then, I introduce net worth constraints and unhedged dollar borrowing which pull the optimal policy away toward putting a much greater weight on the dollar.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0501/0501001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0501001.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0501001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: East Asia; optimal basket pegs; balance sheet effects; exchange rate regimes;

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References

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  1. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEG Working Papers 20017, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  4. Andrew Crockett & Chairman, 1999. "General discussion : exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 411-422.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  6. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  9. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1982. "A determination of the optimal currency basket : A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 333-354, May.
  13. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  14. Takatoshi Ito & Eiji Ogawa & Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1999. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," NBER Working Papers 6729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2008. "The Optimal Currency Basket with Input Currency and Output Currency," Working Papers 172008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg," IMF Working Papers 12/73, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Xu, Juanyi, 2011. "The optimal currency basket under vertical trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1323-1340.
  5. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.
  6. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Should East Asia's currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 283-308, September.

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