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Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role

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Ronald McKinnon
Gunther Schnabl

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Abstract

August 2002

Since the early 1980s, the smaller East Asian economies have experienced a synchronized business cycle. Before the Asian crisis of 1997-98, they pegged their exchange rates to the US dollar. Post crisis, we show that they have resumed dollar pegging on a high frequency, i.e., day-to-day, basis, with indications of a possible return to pegging at lower frequencies as well. The joint exchange rate stabilization of their currencies against the dollar reduces payments risk and strengthens trade linkages in the region. However, it has also made East Asian economies more sensitive to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate. Sudden yen depreciation slows regional economic growth, and yen appreciation accelerates it. Against this, China’s macroeconomic and exchange rate policies have been a critically important stabilizing influence. Because Japan’s own economic slump can also be linked to the fluctuating yen/dollar exchange rate, and any deep depreciation of the yen would be economically disastrous for the whole East Asian region, we conclude that East Asia is a natural dollar zone that Japan should consider joining.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02010.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:02010

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  1. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 2000. "Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2502, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Working Papers 99018, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Froot, Kenneth A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-217, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
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  10. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kiyotaka Sato, 1999. "The International Use of the Japanese Yen: The Case of Japan's Trade with East Asia," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 547-584, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
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  14. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and The Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2002. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-181, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 022003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia after the Crisis: Implications from Intra-daily Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-247, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kian Teng Kwek & Kuan Nee Koay, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and volatility asymmetries: an application to finding a natural dollar currency," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 307-323, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2009. "Intervention index and exchange rate regimes: the cases of selected East-Asian economies," MPRA Paper 17138, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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