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Implications of the currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in emerging East Asia

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Author Info
Kawai, Masahiro
Akiyama, Shigeru

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Abstract

The authors examine the implications of the East Asian currency crisis for exchange rate arrangements in the region's emerging market economies. They focus on the roles of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro in the emerging East Asian economies'exchange rate policies. They claim that these economies are particularly susceptible to large exchange rate fluctuations because they have been pursuing financial deregulation, opening markets, and liberalizing capital accounts, and becausethey face increased risk of sudden capital flow reversals, with attendant instability in their financial system and foreign exchange market. The authors find that the dollar's role as the dominant anchor currency in East Asia was reduced during the recent currency crisis but has become prominent again since late 1998. It is too early for conclusions, but the economies seem likely to maintain more flexible exchange rate arrangements, at least officially. At the same time, these economies presumably will continue to prefer to maintain exchange rate stability without fixed rate commitments. They are better off choosing a balanced currency basket system in which the yen and the euro play a more important role than before. The ASEAN countries have a special incentive to avoid harmful fluctuations in exchange rates within the region, which could suddenly alter their international price competitiveness and make prospective free trade agreements unsuitable. So they may stabilize their exchange rates against similar currency baskets, to ensure intraregional exchange rate stability.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2502.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2502

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Keywords: Economic Stabilization; Economic Theory&Research; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Macroeconomic Management;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeffrey A Frankel, 1993. "Is there a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
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  9. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
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  10. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R, 1999. "Pegging to the Dollar and the Euro," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 379-410, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
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  15. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2002. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-181, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Sanae Ohno, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia after the Crisis: Implications from Intra-daily Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-247, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "After the Crisis, The East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging," Working Papers 042001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kawai, Masahiro & Takagi, Shinji, 2000. "Proposed strategy for a regional exchange rate arrangement in post-crisis East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2503, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. OGAWA Eiji & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2009. "Analysis on β and σ Convergences of East Asian Currencies," Discussion papers 09018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2009. "Intervention index and exchange rate regimes: the cases of selected East-Asian economies," MPRA Paper 17138, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gordon de Brouwer, 2002. "The IMF and East Asia: A Changing Regional Financial Architecture," Finance Working Papers 384, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eiji Ogawa & Taiyo Yoshimi, 2009. "Analysis on ƒÀ and ƒÐ Convergences of East Asian Currencies," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-049, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems," NBER Working Papers 12198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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