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Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg: Do Trade Patterns Matter?

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  • Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana

Abstract

This paper assesses the role of trade patterns in shaping the volatility of the effective exchange rate under two alternative peg regimes: a hard peg to a single currency and a peg to a basket of currencies. I link the changes in the nominal effective exchange rate of a pegged currency to the fluctuations of its anchor vis-a-vis other major currencies, with an emphasis on the dynamics of trade patterns. In an application to the WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union), I find that the nominal effective exchange rate of the union was twice as volatile under the hard peg to the euro as it would have been under a hypothetical basket peg over the past decade. This result was driven by the substantial shifts that occurred in WAEMU trade patterns, away from euro area countries and toward the ?"BICs" (Brazil, India, and China). These findings suggest that policymakers should pay as much attention to the type of peg as to pegging in itself, with a particular focus on the dynamics of trade patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg: Do Trade Patterns Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/073, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Agyapong & Anokye M. Adam, 2012. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Implication for West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 215-228, October.

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