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The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?

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  • Camilo E Tovar

Abstract

The relative importance of different mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are analyzed using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Devaluations are defined as an increase in the central bank's nominal exchange rate target, which induces a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Three main mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are considered: The traditional expansionary expenditure-switching effect, the balance sheet effect which allows the possibility of contractionary effects when firms' debt are dollar-denominated, and a monetary channel associated with an interest rule that targets the nominal exchange rate. The model is calibrated and simulated under alternative scenarios of exchange rate regimes and shocks. Devaluations are found to be expansionary despite the contractionary balance sheet effect. In response to adverse external shocks the economy's output response improves with a devaluation the less flexible the exchange rate regime is.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 192.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:192

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Related research

Keywords: devaluations; balance sheet effect; interest rate rule; exchange rate target; new open economy macroeconomics;

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References

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  1. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7630, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  6. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hairault, J.O. & Portier, F., 1992. "Money New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycles," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.32, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  9. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul R. Bergin, 2004. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," NBER Working Papers 10356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  12. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2007. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part II: Flexible Exchange Rates," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 87, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Haider, Adnan & Khan, Safdar Ullah, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 12977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jan 2009.
  4. García-Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2010. "Devaluation and pass-through in indebted and risky economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 36-45, January.
  5. Arturo Antón Sarabia, 2007. "The Financial Accelerator from a Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Working Papers 2007-06, Banco de México.
  6. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 163, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Matthieu Bussière & Sweta c Saxena & Camilo Tovar, 2010. "Chronicle of currency collapses: re-examining the effects on output," BIS Working Papers 314, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 11/136, International Monetary Fund.

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