Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel’s Law and other Culprits
AbstractThis study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-makret service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistant and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp991.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
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European Union; inflation; Balassa-Samuelson; real convergence; catching up; Bayesian model average; non-linearity.;
Other versions of this item:
- Égert, Balázs, 2011. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 208-229, June.
- Balazs Egert, 2010. "Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other Culprits," CESifo Working Paper Series 3110, CESifo Group Munich.
- Balázs Égert, 2010. "Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and Other Culprits," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 792, OECD Publishing.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-08-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-08-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2010-08-14 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-MAC-2010-08-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-08-14 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-08-14 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
- NEP-TRA-2010-08-14 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
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