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The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year

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  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

The creation of the euro and the European Central Bank is a remarkable and unprecedented event in economic and political history: creating a supranational central bank and leaving eleven countries without national currencies of their own. The experience of the first year confirms that one size fits all' monetary policy is not suitable for Europe because cyclical and inflation conditions vary substantially among countries. Labor market policies during this first year will increase this problem in the future and may lead to more trade protectionism. The paper explores reasons why cyclical unemployment, structural unemployment, and inflation may all be higher in the future as a result of the single currency. Although some advocate the euro despite its economic problems because of its assumed favorable effects on European political cohesiveness, the paper argues that it is more likely to lead to political conflict within Europe and with the Unites States.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Feldstein, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," NBER Working Papers 7517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7517
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    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3004 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    4. Knobel, A. & Mironov, A., 2015. "Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 76-101.
    5. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Andrew Brown & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "The Causes of Euro Instability," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_324, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Pawel Gajewski, 2014. "Monetary policy stress in EMU during the moderation and the global crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2014, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    7. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    8. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque Centrale Européenne ou le Seigneur des euros," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 175-210.
    9. Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 24, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Issing, Otmar, 2005. "The ECB and the euro--the first 6 years: A view from the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 405-420, June.
    12. Kleczka, Mitja, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Secular Stagnation at the Zero Lower Bound. A View on the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 67228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2008. "The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-207, June.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2967 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    16. Szakolczai, György, 2020. "Az euró reformja - a keynesi szellemű megoldás [Reform of the euro: the Keynesian solution]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 911-929.
    17. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17.
    18. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.
    19. Dominick Salvatore, 2002. "The Euro, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary System," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 579(1), pages 153-167, January.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3004 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3004 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2002. "Exchange-Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU," Working Paper Series 576, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    24. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
    25. Papanikos, Gregory T., 2015. "The real exchange rate of euro and Greek economic growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 100-109.

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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