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Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

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  • Mario Cerrato
  • Alexander Kadow
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this "Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-specific error correction models in a global system. We find that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates, which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the effects of the recent financial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2010_21.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2010_21

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Keywords: German Dominance Hypothesis; Global VAR; Central and Eastern Europe; monetary integration; European integration.;

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  1. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  2. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
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