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CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain

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  • Martin Wagner
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the necessity for an indirect approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). The necessity for an indirect approach arises for two reasons. First, the ongoing structural changes in the transition economies imply that their growth process is not yet adequately described by the long-run growth forces as identified by (neoclassical) growth theory. Second, their upcoming European Union membership has to be taken into account in growth projections. The indirect approach proposed in this paper is to base the growth projections for the CEEC10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. Thus, in effect we propose a calibration approach. Our study differs from previous studies that employ an indirect approach in two ways. First, we estimate growth equations for the EU and not for a large world-wide country data set that contains many heterogeneous countries that are essentially unrelated to the CEECs. Second, we assess the uncertainty inherent in growth projections by estimating a variety of economically meaningful equations and by specifying a variety of plausible scenarios for the explanatory variables. This results in distributions of projected growth rates, which allow for an uncertainty analysis. Besides growth rate distributions also convergence times distributions are computed

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp0403.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0403

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Keywords: Real convergence; transition economies; growth projections; uncertainty analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
  2. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Canela, Miguel A., 2008. "Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market," IESE Research Papers D/727, IESE Business School.
  3. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
  4. Groh, Alexander Peter & von Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 625-647, June.
  5. Groh, Alexander P. & Liectenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The first step of the capital flow from institutions to entrepreneurs: The criteria for sorting venture capital funds," IESE Research Papers D/795, IESE Business School.
  6. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
  7. John Lewis, 2007. "Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria during a Period of Nominal Convergence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1902, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  9. Ivo Bicanic & Saul D. Hoffman & Oriana Vukoja, 2010. "Croatian Wage Inequality and Wage Differentials, 1970-2008: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers 10-03, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  10. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11896, The World Bank.
  11. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Miroslava Havettova & Martin Labaj, 2012. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp143, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael R., 1997. "Disorganization," Scholarly Articles 3659691, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  14. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
  15. Kornai, János, 2005. "Közép-Kelet-Európa nagy átalakulása - siker és csalódás
    [The great transformation of Central and Eastern Europe - success and disappointment]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 907-936.
  16. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Lieser, Karsten, 2008. "The European venture capital and private equity country attractiveness index(es)," IESE Research Papers D/773, IESE Business School.

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