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CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain

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  • Martin Wagner
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the necessity for an indirect approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). The necessity for an indirect approach arises for two reasons. First, the ongoing structural changes in the transition economies imply that their growth process is not yet adequately described by the long-run growth forces as identified by (neoclassical) growth theory. Second, their upcoming European Union membership has to be taken into account in growth projections. The indirect approach proposed in this paper is to base the growth projections for the CEEC10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. Thus, in effect we propose a calibration approach. Our study differs from previous studies that employ an indirect approach in two ways. First, we estimate growth equations for the EU and not for a large world-wide country data set that contains many heterogeneous countries that are essentially unrelated to the CEECs. Second, we assess the uncertainty inherent in growth projections by estimating a variety of economically meaningful equations and by specifying a variety of plausible scenarios for the explanatory variables. This results in distributions of projected growth rates, which allow for an uncertainty analysis. Besides growth rate distributions also convergence times distributions are computed

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp0403.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0403

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Keywords: Real convergence; transition economies; growth projections; uncertainty analysis;

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  1. Nauro Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 229, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Ben-David, Dan, 1995. "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
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  8. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  10. Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1991. "Regional Growth and Migration: a Japan - U.S. Comparaison," Papers 650, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 38, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Ratna Sahay & Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market - Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/52, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  15. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126, November.
  2. Groh, Alexander Peter & von Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 625-647, June.
  3. John Lewis, 2007. "Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria during a Period of Nominal Convergence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1902, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  5. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Lieser, Karsten, 2008. "The European venture capital and private equity country attractiveness index(es)," IESE Research Papers D/773, IESE Business School.
  6. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
  7. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  8. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
  9. Groh, Alexander P. & Liectenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The first step of the capital flow from institutions to entrepreneurs: The criteria for sorting venture capital funds," IESE Research Papers D/795, IESE Business School.
  10. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
  11. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
  12. Ivo Bicanic & Saul D. Hoffman & Oriana Vukoja, 2010. "Croatian Wage Inequality and Wage Differentials, 1970-2008: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers 10-03, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  13. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
  14. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Canela, Miguel A., 2008. "Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market," IESE Research Papers D/727, IESE Business School.

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