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From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects

Author

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  • Fischer, Stanley
  • Sahay, Ratna
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992-95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential ofthe transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20615
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20615/4/MPRA_paper_20615.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    5. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley & DEC, 1994. "The Soviet economic decline : historical and republican data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1284, The World Bank.
    7. S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 5.
    8. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post-communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
    9. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 1996/031, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis & Miss. A Cheasty, 1996. "Fiscal Transition in Countries of the Former Soviet Union: An Interim Assessment," IMF Working Papers 1996/061, International Monetary Fund.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "Do Government Wage Cuts Close Budget Deficits? a Conceptual Framework for Developing Countries and Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 1996/019, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Inflation and stabilization in transition economies: An analytical interpretation of the evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 75-108.
    13. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
    14. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 229-233, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition; growth; Eastern Europe; output; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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