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Back to the Future: the Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered

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Campos, Nauro F

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Abstract

How many years will the average transition economy need to reach the income level of the average OECD country? The favoured methodology in use to answer such questions is referred to as the BLR approach, because it uses specifications from Barro, and Levine and Renelt. The literature has so far refrained from identifying and testing the underlying assumptions of the BLR approach. This paper attempts to fill this gap. Our results contrast sharply with the assumptions and findings from the BLR approach, questioning its might and challenging our understanding of the transition process in its key dimension.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2654.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2654

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Growth Prospects; Transition Economies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ke-young Chu & Gerd Schwartz, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 94/68, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Eduardo Borensztein & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 372, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain," Diskussionsschriften dp0403, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. J. Gacs, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process," Working Papers ir00013, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Boeri, Tito, 2001. "Transition with Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Rumen Dobrinsky, 2003. "Convergence in Per Capita Income Levels, Productivity Dynamics and Real Exchange Rates in the EU Acceding Countries," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 305-334, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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