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The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

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Author Info
Wagner, Martin (Department of Economics, University of Bern)
Hlouskova, Jaroslava (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies)

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Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. The growth prospects of these economies cannot be directly assessed, as the economic growth process in the transition countries is shown to not yet be described adequately by neoclassical growth theory. Thus, an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience on 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analyzed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-20.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2001
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Transition Economics Series with number 20.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:20

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Related research
Keywords: Transition economies; Growth and convergence; EU accession;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ville Kaitila, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ville Kaitila, 2004. "Convergence of real GDP per capita in the EU15. How do the Accession Countries fit in?," Economics Working Papers 025, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aaron N. Mehrotra & Tuomas A. Peltonen, 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy - lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 467, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Johannes Stephan, 2003. "EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?," IWH Discussion Papers 184, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU: what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  6. Ville Kaitila, 2005. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Economics Working Papers 031, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Paavo Okko, 2003. "Regional growth and convergence via integration – the case of the large EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p445, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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