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The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

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  • Wagner, Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Bern)

  • Hlouskova, Jaroslava

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. The growth prospects of these economies cannot be directly assessed, as the economic growth process in the transition countries is shown to not yet be described adequately by neoclassical growth theory. Thus, an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience on 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analyzed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-20.pdf
File Function: First version, 2001
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Transition Economics Series with number 20.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:20

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Keywords: Transition economies; Growth and convergence; EU accession;

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References

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  1. S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
  2. Ville Kaitila, 2005. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Economics Working Papers 031, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  3. Kaitila, Ville, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  4. Vojinović, Borut & Acharya, Sanjaya & Próchniak, Mariusz, 2009. "Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(2), pages 17-35, December.
  5. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU: what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. Paavo Okko, 2003. "Regional growth and convergence via integration – the case of the large EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p445, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Mehrotra, Aaron N. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy: lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 0467, European Central Bank.
  8. Johannes Stephan, 2003. "EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?," IWH Discussion Papers 184, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Markandya, Anil & Pedroso-Galinato, Suzette & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2006. "Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 121-145, January.

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