IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/etrans/v26y2018i4p769-800.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition

Author

Listed:
  • Torbjörn Becker
  • Anders Olofsgård

Abstract

We look at the growth experience of 25 transition countries over the 25 years since the dissolution of the USSR. The initial collapse in income was much more severe in 12 former Soviet Union countries (FSU12) than in the 10 transition countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 (EU10). In 2015, FSU12 income levels were further behind EU10 than they were at the start of transition, despite more rapid growth in the last 15 years. Compared to predictions from a parsimonious growth model, the region as a whole is ‘normal’ in terms of growth performance since the 2000s. However, the FSU12 over‐perform and the EU10 under‐perform relative to model predictions for the last 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:26:y:2018:i:4:p:769-800
    DOI: 10.1111/ecot.12195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12195
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecot.12195?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.
    2. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Gerard Roland, 2011. "Which Dimensions of Culture Matter for Long-Run Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 492-498, May.
    3. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    4. Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.
    5. Paola Giuliano & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2013. "Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 179-204, October.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    7. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Institutions for High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How to Acquire Them," Chapters, in: Kartik Roy & Jörn Sideras (ed.), Institutions, Globalisation and Empowerment, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, December.
    11. Fabrizio Coricelli & Mathilde Maurel, 2011. "Growth and Crisis in Transition: A Comparative Perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 49-64, February.
    12. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    13. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Torbjörn Becker, 2018. "Macroeconomic Challenges," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven Rosefielde & Masaaki Kuboniwa & Satoshi Mizobata & Kumiko Haba (ed.), The Unwinding of the Globalist Dream EU, Russia and China, chapter 9, pages 153-182, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2010. "Transition, Structural Divergence, and Performance: Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union over 2000-2007," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-032, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Gerard Roland, 2017. "Culture, Institutions, and the Wealth of Nations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 402-416, July.
    18. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
    19. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    20. Popov, Vladimir, 2010. "The Long Road to Normalcy," WIDER Working Paper Series 013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea, 2010. "Transition, Structural Divergence,and Performance: Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union over 2000-2007," WIDER Working Paper Series 032, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Dewatripont, M & Roland, G, 1992. "The Virtues of Gradualism and Legitimacy in the Transition to a Market Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 291-300, March.
    23. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Knack, Steve, 1996. "Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-228, June.
    25. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    26. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    27. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, "undated". "Normal Countries: The East 25 Years After Communism," Working Paper 204036, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    28. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    29. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    30. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    31. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Stanley Fischer & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/052, International Monetary Fund.
    32. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
    34. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Mr. Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 1998/053, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    36. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    38. Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Mr. Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 1998/022, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    40. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    41. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1856, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    42. Aslund,Anders, 2013. "How Capitalism Was Built," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107026544.
    43. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Torbjörn, 2019. "Russia’s macroeconomy—a closer look at growth, investment, and uncertainty," SITE Working Paper Series 49, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    2. Cristian Incaltarau & Ilkhom Sharipov & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Teodor Lucian Moga, 2022. "Growth and convergence in Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the USSR—embarking on different development paths?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    3. Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    3. Becker, Torbjörn, 2019. "Russia’s macroeconomy—a closer look at growth, investment, and uncertainty," SITE Working Paper Series 49, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    4. Thorsten Beck & Luc Laeven, 2006. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 157-186, June.
    5. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2016. "A time to throw stones, a time to reap: How long does it take for democratic transitions to improve institutional outcomes?," Working Papers CEB 16-016, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. In Do Hwang, 2017. "Which Type of Trust Matters?:Interpersonal vs. Institutional vs. Political Trust," Working Papers 2017-15, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    8. Cingolani, Luciana & Crombrugghe, Denis de, 2012. "Techniques for dealing with reverse causality between institutions and economic performance," MERIT Working Papers 2012-034, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Nawaz, Saima, 2015. "Growth effects of institutions: A disaggregated analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 118-126.
    10. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    11. Natkhov, T. & Polishchuk, L., 2017. "Political Economy of Institutions and Development: The Importance of Being Inclusive. Reflection on "Why Nations Fail" by D. Acemoglu and J. Robinson. Part I. Institutions and Economic Devel," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 12-38.
    12. Geoffrey M. Hodgson, 2006. "Institutions, Recessions and Recovery in the Transitional Economies," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 875-894, December.
    13. Carl Henrik Knutsen, 2012. "Democracy and economic growth: A survey of arguments and results," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 393-415, December.
    14. Christian Bjørnskov & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Is trust the missing root of institutions, education, and development?," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 157(3-4), pages 641-669, December.
    15. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    16. Bhattacharyya, Sambit, 2009. "Unbundled institutions, human capital and growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 106-120, March.
    17. Daniel Oto Peralías & Daniel Oto-Peralías & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Tracing the Link between Government Size and Growth: The Role of Public Sector Quality," EcoMod2012 4015, EcoMod.
    18. Wilson, Ross, 2016. "Does Governance Cause Growth? Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 138-151.
    19. Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2011. "Growth Miracles and Growth Debacles," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13609.
    20. Oasis Kodila‐Tedika & Sherif Khalifa, 2020. "Long‐term vision and economic development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3088-3102, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:26:y:2018:i:4:p:769-800. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ebrdduk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.