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Growth and crisis in transition : a comparative perspective

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Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight significant differences between transition and non-transition countries, and heterogeneity within the transition group. Distinguishing the performance following the so-called "transitional recession" from that of "normal recessions", the analysis allows separating the role of initial conditions, pre-transition, from the effects determined by the economic structure that emerged after the launch of market reforms. The post-recession behavior of output in Central-Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post-crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Therefore, the ability to rebound after a crisis is a key element of the growth performance of different transition countries. Furthermore, we distinguish three components of the growth performance associated to a crisis, namely the capacity to rebound, the depth and the lenght of the crisis. We observe that such performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 10020.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:10020

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Keywords: Recessions; crises; reform complementarities; transition.;

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  1. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2006. "Growth, Reform Indicators and Policy Complementaries," NBER Working Papers 12544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Babetskii, Ian & Campos, Nauro F, 2007. "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 2638, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "A unified theory of the evolution of international income levels," Staff Report 333, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Nicola Cetorelli, 2001. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 617-648, 04.
  7. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2009. "Financial Liberalization and Democracy: The Role of Reform Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 4338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Francesco Giavazzi & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Economic and Political Liberalizations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000724, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Thierry Tressel & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/284, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  11. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
  12. Campos, Nauro F & Hsiao, Cheng & Nugent, Jeffrey B, 2006. "Crises, What Crises?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Enrica Detragiache & Abdul Abiad & Thierry Tressel, 2008. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/266, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1997. "Fiscal constraints and the speed of transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 221-249, February.
  15. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, 07.
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Cited by:
  1. Bicaba, Zorobabel T., 2011. "Do financial reforms complementarity and reforms sequence matter for international capital inflows?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 12, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Keynesian and Austrian Perspective on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
  4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
  5. Katerina Smídková & Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir, 2010. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?," IMF Working Papers 10/198, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.

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