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Growth and crisis in transition : a comparative perspective

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Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight significant differences between transition and non-transition countries, and heterogeneity within the transition group. Distinguishing the performance following the so-called "transitional recession" from that of "normal recessions", the analysis allows separating the role of initial conditions, pre-transition, from the effects determined by the economic structure that emerged after the launch of market reforms. The post-recession behavior of output in Central-Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post-crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Therefore, the ability to rebound after a crisis is a key element of the growth performance of different transition countries. Furthermore, we distinguish three components of the growth performance associated to a crisis, namely the capacity to rebound, the depth and the lenght of the crisis. We observe that such performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 10020.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:10020

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Keywords: Recessions; crises; reform complementarities; transition.;

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  1. Parente, Stephen L. & Prescott, Edward C., 2005. "A Unified Theory of the Evolution of International Income Levels," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1371-1416 Elsevier.
  2. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  3. Nicola Cetorelli, 2001. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 617-648, 04.
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  5. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1997. "Fiscal constraints and the speed of transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 221-249, February.
  6. Francesco Giavazzi & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Economic and Political Liberalizations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000724, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, 07.
  8. Babetskii, Ian & Campos, Nauro F, 2007. "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 2638, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Campos, Nauro F & Hsiao, Cheng & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2006. "Crises, What Crises?," IZA Discussion Papers 2217, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & De Macedo, Jorge Braga, 2008. "Growth, Reform Indicators and Policy Complementarities," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7960, Paris Dauphine University.
  11. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Thierry Tressel & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Growth and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 09/284, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
  2. Bicaba, Zorobabel T., 2011. "Do financial reforms complementarity and reforms sequence matter for international capital inflows?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 12, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  3. Hartwell , Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Braga de Macedo, Jorge & Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Rocha, Bruno, 2014. "Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 417-435.
  5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
  6. Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 18-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  7. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
  8. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00565231 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2012. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 226-251, July.

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