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The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

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  • Hlouskova, Jaroslava
  • Wagner, Martin

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth accounting exercise to assess these countries' growth prospects infeasible. Therefore an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close or narrow the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analysed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects of these measures on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3318.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3318

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Keywords: EU accession; growth and convergence; transition economies;

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Cited by:
  1. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
  2. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  3. Markandya, Anil & Pedroso-Galinato, Suzette & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2006. "Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 121-145, January.
  4. Vojinović, Borut & Acharya, Sanjaya & Próchniak, Mariusz, 2009. "Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(2), pages 17-35, December.
  5. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU: what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. Kaitila, Ville, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  7. Johannes Stephan, 2003. "EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?," IWH Discussion Papers 184, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Paavo Okko, 2003. "Regional growth and convergence via integration – the case of the large EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p445, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Mehrotra, Aaron N. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy: lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 0467, European Central Bank.

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