IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Wagner, Martin
  • Hlouskova, Jaroslava

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth accounting exercise to assess these countries' growth prospects infeasible. Therefore an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close or narrow the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analysed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects of these measures on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2002. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," CEPR Discussion Papers 3318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP3318
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-section Perspectives:," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 194-204, May.
    2. Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1991. "Regional Growth and Migration: a Japan - U.S. Comparaison," Papers 650, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    3. Estrin, Saul & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995," CEPR Discussion Papers 1616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    7. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    10. Ben-David, Dan, 1996. "Trade and convergence among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 279-298, May.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    12. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    13. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
    14. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
    15. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Stanley Fischer & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/052, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Baumol, William J & Wolff, Edward N, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1155-1159, December.
    17. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    19. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    22. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    23. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    24. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    25. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    26. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    30. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    31. Saul Estrin & Geovanni Urga, 1997. "Convergence in Output in Transition Economies Central & Eastern Europe, 1970-1995," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 30, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    32. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Mr. Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 1998/053, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
    34. Quah, Danny T, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
    35. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2006. "Essays on empirical macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_034.
    2. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    3. Vojinović, Borut & Acharya, Sanjaya & Próchniak, Mariusz, 2009. "Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(2), pages 17-35, December.
    4. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU : what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972693, HAL.
    5. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    7. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    8. Mehrotra, Aaron N. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy: lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 467, European Central Bank.
    9. Peter Huber & Herbert Brücker & Janos Köllö & Iulia Traistaru & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2002. "Regional and Labour Market Development in Candidate Countries. A Literature Survey," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 23340, April.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3382 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paavo Okko, 2003. "Regional growth and convergence via integration – the case of the large EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p445, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    13. Markandya, Anil & Pedroso-Galinato, Suzette & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2006. "Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 121-145, January.
    14. Stephan, Johannes, 2003. "EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?," IWH Discussion Papers 184/2003, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Alisher Akhmedjonov & Marco Chi Keung Lau & Berna Balcı İzgi, 2013. "New evidence of regional income divergence in post-reform Russia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2675-2682, June.
    16. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2006. "Essays on empirical macroeconomics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2006_034.
    17. Kaitila, Ville, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    2. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    3. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    4. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    5. Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2001. "Convergence and Inter-Distributional Dynamics among the Spanish Provinces. A Non-parametric Density Estimation Approach," Working Papers 2001/7, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    6. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    7. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    8. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Testing for output convergence: a re-examination," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 45-63, January.
    10. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    11. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    12. Azomahou, Théophile T. & El ouardighi, Jalal & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2011. "Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1202-1210, May.
    13. Giovanni Caggiano & Leone Leonida, 2009. "International output convergence: evidence from an autocorrelation function approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 139-162.
    14. Xanthippi Chapsa & Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Nikolaos Tabakis, 2019. "Real Convergence in EU-15: A Comparative Analysis of North versus South Europe," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-21.
    15. Peter Mulder & Henri Groot, 2007. "Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 85-112, January.
    16. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    17. ArdIc, Oya PInar, 2006. "The gap between the rich and the poor: Patterns of heterogeneity in the cross-country data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 538-555, May.
    18. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    19. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.
    20. Nicolas Debarsy & Cem Ertur, 2006. "The European Enlargement Process and Regional Convergence Revisited: Spatial Effects Still Matter," ERSA conference papers ersa06p198, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition economies; EU accession; growth and convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.