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An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

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  • Barrell, Ray

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Dawn Holland
  • Nigel Pain

Abstract

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 15.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:15

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References

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  1. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Back to the future: The growth prospects of transition economies reconsidered," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025, November.
  3. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  4. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 477-504, July.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. n/a, 2002. "The Role of Efficiency as an Explanation of International Income Differences," NIESR Discussion Papers 137, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  7. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
  8. Schmidt, Klaus M., 1996. "The costs and benefits of privatization: An incomplete contracts approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 19773, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Knack, Steve, 1996. " Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-28, June.
  10. repec:fth:eeccou:146 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Schmidt, Klaus M, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Privatization: An Incomplete Contracts Approach," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, April.
  12. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-86, November.
  13. Bolton, Patrick & Farrell, Joseph, 1990. "Decentralization, Duplication, and Delay," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 803-26, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare," MPRA Paper 31101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period," NIESR Discussion Papers 138, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  3. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Pavel Soukup, 2012. "Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001-2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?," Research and Policy Notes 2012/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(4).
  5. Robert Ambrisko & Jan Babecky & Jakub Rysanek & Vilem Valenta, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2012/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Marga Peeters, 2011. "Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 54(2), pages 58-92.
  7. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Working Papers 2011/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
  9. Vladimir Klyuev & Stephen Snudden, 2011. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 306-326, August.
  10. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mytna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Report No. 56: Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners," Working Papers 2004/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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