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An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

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Author Info
Barrell, Ray (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
Dawn Holland
Nigel Pain

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Abstract

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 15.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:15

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  1. Bolton, Patrick & Farrell, Joseph, 1990. "Decentralization, Duplication, and Delay," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 803-26, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Campos, N.F., 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," Papers 146, Commission of the EEC - Ecofin, Country Studies.
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  3. Schmidt, Klaus M, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Privatization: An Incomplete Contracts Approach," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, April.
  4. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Knack, Steve, 1996. " Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-28, June.
  7. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 477-504, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period," Macroeconomics 0303017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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