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Back to the future: The growth prospects of transition economies reconsidered

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  • Campos, Nauro F.

Abstract

How many years will the average transition economy need to reach the income level of the average OECD country? The favored methodology in use to answer such questions is referred to as the BLR approach, because it uses specifications from Barro, and Levine and Renelt. The literature has so far refrained from identifying and testing the underlying assumptions of the BLR approach. This paper attempts to fill this gap. Our results contrast sharply with the assumptions and findings from the BLR approach, questioning its might and challenging our understanding of the transition process in its key dimension. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 13-2000.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b132000

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Keywords: economic growth; transition economies; growth prospects;

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References

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  1. Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Stabilization, adjustment, and growth prospects in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1855, The World Bank.
  2. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gerd Schwartz & Ke-young Chu, 1994. "Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 94/68, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  5. Shantayanan Devarajan & Vinaya Swaroop & Heng-fu Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," CEMA Working Papers 77, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  6. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  9. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1996. "Achieving Rapid Growth in the Transition Economies of Central Europe," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0073, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  10. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  11. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  12. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  13. Peter Montiel & Eduardo Borensztein, 1991. "Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 91/61, International Monetary Fund.
  14. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
  15. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
  2. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain," Diskussionsschriften dp0403, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  3. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA.
  4. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Democracy and Growth Reconsidered: Why Economic Performance of New Democracies is not Encouraging," MPRA Paper 21606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Rumen Dobrinsky, 2003. "Convergence in Per Capita Income Levels, Productivity Dynamics and Real Exchange Rates in the EU Acceding Countries," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 305-334, September.
  6. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Democratization, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 19152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Liberalization, democracy and economic performance during transition," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  8. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth during Post-Communist Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Democracy in transition economies: Grease or sand in the wheels of growth?," ZEI Working Papers B 09-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. J. Gacs, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process," Working Papers ir00013, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  11. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  12. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Демократизация И Экономический Рост
    [Democratization and Economic Growth]
    ," MPRA Paper 23012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Tito Boeri, 1999. "Transition with Labour Supply," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 274, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  15. Ofer, Gur, 2002. "The Meltdown of the Russian State: Piroska Mohacsi Nagy, Edward Elgar publishers, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA, 2000," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 611-613, September.
  16. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank.

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