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Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI

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Mariam Camarero
Cecilio Tamarit

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the joint performance of FDI and trade under a full liberalization process consistent with New Trade Theory models. The testing framework consists of the estimation of demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the US and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors, not only the traditional determinants of trade, but also new ones, such as the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply a variety of panel unit root and cointegration tests to the cases of both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI.

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Paper provided by European Economy Group in its series European Economy Group Working Papers with number 22.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:22

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Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid
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Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid
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  1. Fukao, Kyoji & Ishido, Hikari & Ito, Keiko, 2003. "Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 468-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 693-708, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Magnus Blomstrom & Ari Kokko, 1997. "Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 6019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & María Montero-Muñoz, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-323, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. James R. Markusen, 1997. "Trade versus Investment Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 6231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard E. Baldwin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 1998. "Multiproduct Multinationals and Reciprocal FDI Dumping," NBER Working Papers 6483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Driver, R. & Wren-Lewis, S., 1999. "New Trade Theory and Aggregate Export Equations: an Application of Panel Cointegration," Discussion Papers 99/17, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
  8. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables & Denise Eby Konan & Kevin H. Zhang, 1996. "A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services," NBER Working Papers 5696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1997. "A Monte Carlo Comparison of Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data," Econometrics 9712002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1997. "Regional integration and foreign direct investment : a conceptual framework and three cases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1750, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1996. "Japanese and U.S. Exports and Investment as Conduits of Growth," NBER Working Papers 5457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Neary, J Peter, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Single Market," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 291-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
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  19. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro & Matthias Lücke, 1999. "Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 95-121, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Sourafel Girma, 2003. "Absorptive capacity and productivity spillovers From FDI: a threshold regression analysis," European Economy Group Working Papers 25, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johnson, Andreas, 2006. "FDI and Exports: the case of the High Performing East Asian Economies," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 57, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sarianna M. Lundan, 2007. "The Home Country Effects of Internationalisation," Discussion Papers 1100, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jaime Turrion & Carmela Martin, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union and Foreign Direct Investment Adjustments," European Economy Group Working Papers 24, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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