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Foreign direct investment and trade: A causality analysis

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  • Oscar Bajo
  • María Montero

Abstract

We analyse in this paper the relationship between outward FDI and exports, with Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977-1992. The empirical methodology makes use of Granger-causality tests in a cointegration framework, where the order of lags for each variable has been selected by means of Hsiao¹s sequential approach. The tests have been performed both in a bivariate and multivariate setting, in the latter case including as additional variables a proxy for world income and the relative price of exports. Since cointegration between outward FDI and exports was found, error-correction mechanisms under three alternative specifications were included, which allowed us to discriminate between short- and long-run Granger-causality. Our results point to the existence of long-run Granger-causality from outward FDI to exports, according to a complementary relationship, for the Spanish case during the period of analysis.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 06.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:06

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yan Chen & Wen-Chung Hsu & Chengqi Wang, 2012. "Effects of outward FDI on home-country export competitiveness: The role of location and industry heterogeneity," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 56-73, February.
  2. Raphaël Chiappini, 2012. "Un réexamen de la relation entre commerce et Investissement Direct à l'étranger (IDE) à partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique Le cas de l'Allemagne, la France et l'Italie," Working Papers hal-00744405, HAL.
  3. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, . "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-01, FEDEA.
  4. Emilia Penkova-Pearson, 2012. "Trade, convergence and exchange rate regime: evidence from Bulgaria and Romania," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 107-139.
  5. Yi Zhang, 2009. "Unravelling the complex motivations behind China’s FDI," Working Papers, Utrecht School of Economics 09-02, Utrecht School of Economics.
  6. Oscar Bajo & María Montero, . "Foreign direct investment and trade: A causality analysis," Studies on the Spanish Economy 06, FEDEA.
  7. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Raphaël Chiappini, 2012. "Un réexamen de la relation entre commerce et Investissement Direct à l’étranger (IDE) à partir d’un modèle en panel dynamique Le cas de l’Allemagne, la France et l’Italie," Larefi Working Papers 1204, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
  9. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2007. "How Do Indian Multinationals Affect Exports from Home Country?," MPRA Paper 19022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  11. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group.

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