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Are UK inflation expectations rational?

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  • Hasan Bakhshi
  • Anthony Yates

Abstract

This paper tests for unbiasedness in inflation expectations drawn from a survey of UK employees by Gallup. It focuses on the econometric difficulties presented by having a small sample, there being overlapping forecast horizons and by trying to make inference when the data appear to be non-stationary. Applying a method of inference suggested by Inder (1993) the paper concludes that measured expectations systematically overstate inflation. The paper checks the robustness of this result by looking at alternative survey data and by using alternative techniques for modelling the long run.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1998/wp81.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 81.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:81

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  6. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 372-85, March.
  10. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
  11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  12. Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Muthian Rationality of the Inflation Forecasts of U.S. Consumers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 173-86, May.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  15. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  16. Moore, Michael J. & Copeland, Laurence S., 1995. "A comparison of Johansen and Phillips-Hansen cointegration tests of forward market efficiency Baillie and Bollerslev revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 131-135, February.
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  19. Yerima Ngama, 1994. "A re-examination of the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 447-460, September.
  20. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  21. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  22. W A Razzak, 1997. "Testing the rationality of the National Bank of New Zealand's survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  23. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  24. Kevin Fox, 1997. "White noise and other experiments on augmented Dickey-Fuller tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 689-694.
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  28. repec:fth:inseep:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
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