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Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis

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Author Info
Oscar Bajo () (Departamento de Economia - UPNA)
Maria Montero Mu–oz

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Abstract

We analyse in this paper the relationship between outward FDI and exports, with Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977-1992. The empirical methodology makes use of Granger-causality tests in a cointegration framework, where the order of lags for each variable has been selected by means of Hsiao¹s sequential approach. The tests have been performed both in a bivariate and multivariate setting, in the latter case including as additional variables a proxy for world income and the relative price of exports. Since cointegration between outward FDI and exports was found, error-correction mechanisms under three alternative specifications were included, which allowed us to discriminate between short- and long-run Granger-causality. Our results point to the existence of long-run Granger-causality from outward FDI to exports, according to a complementary relationship, for the Spanish case during the period of analysis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra in its series Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra with number 9902.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:9902

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign direct investment; exports; Granger-causality;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Markusen, James R, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-89, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  5. Salvador Barrios., . "Inversión directa extranjera y especialización comercial en los países periféricos," Working Papers 97-16, FEDEA.
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    Other versions:
  7. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Yamawaki, Hideki, 1991. "Exports and Foreign Distributional Activities: Evidence on Japanese Firms in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 294-300, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 1999. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Oscar Bajo & Maria Montero Mu–oz, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9902, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  25. Lourdes Moreno Martín & Diego Rodríguez, 1998. "Efectos de la inversión extranjera directa en los flujos comerciales de las empresas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 179-199, May. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & María Montero-Muñoz, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-323, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Yi Zhang, 2009. "Unravelling the Complex Motivations behind China's FDI," Working Papers 09-02, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, . "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  6. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment And Imports In Spain," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
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