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How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports

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Stirböck, Claudia

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Abstract

This paper presents a single error-correction analysis of German total, euro-area (intra) and non-euro-area (extra) import demand for the 1980-2004 period and the more recent 1993-2004 period. German import demand is mainly driven by domestic demand and foreign demand for German goods; by contrast, the price sensitivity of German imports is low. We note a greater propensity to import with respect to an increase in investment compared to a rise in consumption, yet find that export goods have the highest marginal import content. The influence of export demand on the German economy?s import demand is growing, with the marginal propensity to import being higher for extra imports than for intra imports; in addition, the reagibility of the former has intensified perceptibly since the 1990s. The price sensitivity of intra imports is not only higher but, unlike that of extra imports, is also significant and has increased at the current end. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,39.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5166

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Related research
Keywords: Import demand; intra and extra euro-area imports; import content; single equation error-correction;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  6. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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